Adjustment of Mortality Table Québec 2020 Taking Account the First Wave of Covid-19

Lan Qu, Louis Doray, Nadine Ouellette and Jean-François Angers, Université de Montréal, QC

Québec is the province the most affected during the first wave of Covid-19 in Canada. Since the start of the pandemic, up to the 7^th September 2020, there have been 63,713 confirmed cases in Québec and 5,770 people have died. People aged 70 or more count for 91.5% in the total number of deaths. Since the population of Québec and of Canada will not be completely vaccinated before the end of summer 2021, the mortality rate is and will be affected until then.

In our project, we have constructed updated mortality tables in age groups of 10 years and mixed sex groups. One mortality table takes account of the increased deaths caused by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Québec, while the other mortality table doesn’t take account of impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

By using available information on the numbers of death from 2010 to 2020, on the daily death numbers due to COVID-19, on the population of Québec, and on the recent mortality tables of Québec, we have calculated the increasement of death in 2020, and then the mortality rate by age groups of 10 years.

We have observed from the results that the influence of COVID-19 on the life expectancy at age x is mainly on individuals on the thirty’s and on the age group of 90 years old or more. The reduction of life expectancy on the age group of 90 and more (e₉₀) is 1,6 years, which brings us back to the time of 1970s to have the same e₉₀ value.